Hello my friends..
It is never a good idea to place a wager based strictly on a system or on a trend or because of an injury or just because of a weather concern, the reason why of course is because you can bet your bottom dollar that the odds maker also knows of these factors as well and has already made the adjustments.
Why would the odds maker make adjustments you ask? Simply put my friend, the reason why is because the odds maker already knows what todays “Joe Public” bettor will do and that is to pounce on the system or trend play or in the case of bad weather jump on the “UNDER” and when hearing about an injury jump on the opposing team like there is no tomorrow.
Personally, when hearing of a team suffering an injury to virtually any player with the exception of the QB, I have found it very profitable to play the ole “wait and see” game, meaning that later in the week once Joe Public has influenced the line that value will probably be found on the side of the team with the injury!
Below you will find a couple of NFL system plays dated since 1990 that have been quite profitable because of the fact that they are very uncommon in frequency and secondly because they combine solid handicapping theory, meaning that there is rhyme and reason as to why they occur!
________________________________________________
1)Play against teams playing their 3rd consecutive road game if they lost the 1st game and won the 2nd game. 15-4-1 ATS 79%
________________________________________________
What makes this system so useful is the fact that it is based on straight up wins and losses in a teams previous two games which allows a handicapper to see a prevailing pattern, in this pattern the team in question falls into two different handicapping situations that cannot be overlooked as the team in question will not only be in “Road Weary” mode, but they will also be in a prime spot for a “Letdown”.
Keep an eye on the Titans when they play the Colts on December 5th as they are the only team to meet these requirements in the 2004 season.
________________________________________________
2)Play against a team playing their 3rd consecutive home game if they are a dog of more than 3 points and they lost their 2 previous games in straight up fashion. 10-4 ATS 72%
________________________________________________
Like the above system, is a very uncommon but very effective situation indeed when considering that six different teams played three straight home games during the 2003 season but none ended up classifying for the system.
The last time this system came into play happened at the end of the 2001 season when the Panthers of Carolina played host to the Patriots after coming off consecutive home losses to St. Louis and Arizona.
Those of us that were fortunate enough to have wagered on New England in that contest were rewarded with a 38-6 Patriot win and cover!
The 2004 regular season schedule reveals that two teams may very well fall into this system when New England plays host to the Jets on October 24th and Seattle is home on MNF against the Boyzzzzz of Dallas on December 6th.
Take care my friends and be well
Jim Campbell
